关键词: 农业保险, 高质量发展, 指标体系, 区域差异, 动态演进

Abstract: Based on the horizontal indicator system, the high-quality development level of agricultural insurance in 30 provinces from 2008 to 2021 is measured, and the regional differences, spatial structural changes, and dynamic evolution characteristics of China’s high-quality development level of agricultural insurance are revealed by using Dagum Gini coefficient, Kernel density function estimation, traditional Markov chain and spatial Markov chain. The findings show that the high-quality development level of agricultural insurance in China is steadily increasing, with the western region experiencing a faster growth rate of 0.5% per year. The regional differences in the high-quality development level of agricultural insurance in China are showing a downward trend, with regional differences and hyperdensity being the main reasons for regional differences, the contribution rate of both being over 66%. There is a phenomenon of “club convergence” in the development of agricultural insurance in China, and the development of agricultural insurance in various provinces has significant spatial spillover effects. The probability of regional agricultural insurance achieving “leapfrog” development is less than 3%. The “Matthew effect” of China’s future agricultural insurance development is showing a continuous weakening trend and is gathering towards a high-level development level. Therefore, it is necessary to adapt measures to local conditions, improve differentiated development policies for agricultural insurance, establish a multi-level and high guarantee agricultural insurance product system, vigorously promote the development of local advantageous and characteristic agricultural insurance businesses, promote balanced development of regional agricultural insurance, and continuously enhance the endogenous development momentum of agricultural insurance.

Key words: agricultural insurance, high quality development, indicator system, regional differences, dynamic evolution