关键词: 失能老人, 长期护理需求, 长期护理筹资, 财政责任

Abstract: With the aging of the population, the need for long-term care has been on the rise. The assessment and prediction of long-term care demand is the premise and basis for making long-term care policies. Based on the data of CHARLS（2018）, this paper adopts the macro simulation method to study the health status of the elderly and predict the changing trend of China’s long-term care demand from 2020 to 2035. The findings show that the number of disabled elderly people will increase to 43.34 million by 2035, the cost of long-term care services will increase to 2,144.6 billion yuan, accounting for 1.07% of GDP and 5.93% of the fiscal revenue. The simulation of long-term care security based on the ILO financing model shows that the long-term care insurance model can share the responsibilities among individuals, enterprises and governments, so as to achieve the goal of ensuring the basics, full coverage and sustainability of the long-term care security. Under the long-term care assistance mode, the financial burden is lighter and the protection coverage is smaller, but it can play a role in helping those most in need with the multi-level long-term care security system.

Key words: disabled elderly, long-term care demand, long-term care financing, fiscal responsibility