关键词: 预防性储蓄,动机强度,异质性,双胞胎

Abstract: On the basis of the formation factors of consumption-controlling habits, this paper employs OLS and the twins intra-group difference method to put forward a basic analytical view for the estimation of the intensity of real precautionary savings motive and the relationship between?the consumer heterogeneity and the motive of precautionary savings. Starting from China’s national conditions, it establishes an empirical model of the precautionary savings motive and tries to analyze the relationship between the consumer heterogeneity and the intensity of precautionary savings motive with the collected micro data. By comparing the estimated results of the intra-group differences of the identical twins data, the intra-group differences of the fraternal twins data and the mixed OLS, the intensity under different conditions is found, including the intensity of real precautionary savings motive, the intensity of precautionary savings motive caused by unpredictable individual saving behavior, and the intensity of precautionary savings motive formed by consumption habits.

Key words: precautionary savings; motive intensity; heterogeneity; twins