关键词: 宏观经济杠杆率,经济增长,通货膨胀,TVP-VAR模型

Abstract: The result of the estimation of the macro-economy leverage ratio equation shows that there is a significant negative correlation between economic growth and inflation and leverage ratio. In the wake of the financial crisis, the slowdown of economic growth and the decrease of inflation rate have greatly enhanced the capacity to drive the macro leverage ratio, which means that at the current stage the economic pattern of “low growth and low inflation”has driven the rapid rise of China’s macro-economy leverage ratio. While the result of the impulse response function shows that both the increase of economic growth and the rise of inflation rate in the short term and medium term have a significant “de-leveraging” effect. And after the financial crisis, the de-leverage effect of the economic growth impact in the short term has been greatly enhanced. In addition, at the present stage, the impact of economic growth on the macro-economic leverage rate has the fastest speed, and the degree of the impact is the biggest in the short-term, while the side effect is the smallest in the long-term. Although the impact of inflation is slightly weakened, the “leverage-plus” range is the minimum in the long term. Therefore, at present it is really an effective way to reduce the leverage rate by promoting economic growth and increasing inflation rate.

Key words: macro-economy leverage ratio; economic growth; inflation; TVP-VAR model