Table of Content

15 August 2014, Volume 0 Issue 08

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Human Capital Investment and the Leap-out of “Middle-Income Trap”

WU He-mao, FENG Shi-liang

2014, 0(08):  1711. 

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Currently China has entered the ranks of middle-income countries, and is faced with the challenges of overcoming the so called“Middle-Income Trap”. Chinese economic growth is now continuing its transformation from relying on investment-driven economic expansion and low cost labor supply into relying on the accumulation and innovation of technical skills and the improvement of workers’ value-creating ability. China desiderates to change the traditional economic growth mode, while the investment on human capital can play an important role in it. From the analysis of the typical countries and regions, it is found that there is a close correlation between the human capital level measured by high-education ratio and the success of overcoming the “Middle-Income Trap”, as well as the time length. Thus in the future, China should strengthen its human capital investment, improve the level of national education, so as to accelerate the cross-stage economic development.

Level of Economic Development, Industrial Structure and Environmental Pollution: An Empirical Analysis of Jiangxi Province

XU Zheng-song1,2, KONG Fan-bin1

2014, 0(08):  1712. 

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By applying the principal component analytical method, this paper constructs a set of environmental pollution index to reflect the degree of environmental pollution. This index shows that the overall environmental pollution situation in Jiangxi province remained stable between 1990 and 1997, after 1998, however, it has the trend of increasingly worsening year by year. Then this paper makes a further analysis of the relationship between the level of economic development in Jiangxi province, the industrial structure changes and the environmental pollution. The results show that there exists a “positive N-type” curve relationship between the comprehensive pollution index of Jiangxi province and per capita GDP. There is a significant positive correlation between the industrial added value to GDP and the proportion of heavy industry output value to the total industrial output value and the environmental pollution comprehensive index. While the change of proportion of the tertiary industry has no significant impact on the environmental pollution, the trade openness has intensified the environmental pollution in Jiangxi, and the investment in the industrial pollution regulation has not significantly improved the environmental pollution situation in Jiangxi province.

An Analysis of the Choice of Shared Tax Model: Based on Governments’ Behavioral Strategy

LI Hua, SUN Zu-dong

2014, 0(08):  1713. 

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The behaviors of the central and local governments vary from the different shared tax models and the economic development levels. The international statistics chosen by the shared tax models also have verified this conclusion. In China, the proportional shared model should be mainly adopted for the shared tax system. In order to reduce the target deviations generated by governments’ different behavioral strategies, the following suggestions can be considered: to reduce the proportion of the shared tax, to give full play to the advantages of the centralized financial system under the proportional shared model, to adopt the additional tax model in good time, to endow the local governments with appropriate tax legislative power, and to keep the policy relatively stable.

On the Measurement of Sustainability of China’s Local Government Debt: Based on the Single Body Model Analysis

MIAO Xiao-lin, FU Run-min

2014, 0(08):  1714. 

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The sustainability of local government debt at the single body level depends on the gap between budgetary revenues and expenditures, as well as the average cost of debt and the income effects. On this basis, this paper applies the local comprehensive income share which can reflect the scale of development and the bearing capacity for the initial allocation, then it makes use of the debt comprehensive risk factors for the correction, finally, it obtains the sustainability of local government debt of each single subject at the second level. The empirical measurement shows that China’s local government debt is generally sustainable, but there are structural differences in the regional distribution, especially the more backward western regions would exhibit unsustainable debt. The key to solving this problem is to improve the debt income level of the West and the related areas.

Catfish Effect of Yu’ebao, Deposit Interest Rate Marketization and the Countermeasures

QIAO Hai-shu, LI Ying

2014, 0(08):  1715. 

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Through the analysis of the triple game between Yu’ebao, banks and the regulators, this paper illustrates in theory the catfish effect of Yu’ebao in the promotion of deposit interest rate marketization, i.e., Yu’ebao can save transaction cost, lower the investment threshold, and attract a large number of depositors to shift their savings accounts. However, the passive response of the banks will increase their financing cost and drive up the social financing cost, thus it is critical to take the initiative response to advance deposit interest rate marketization, so as to improve the social welfare. The regulators have to exercise appropriate supervising on Yu’ebao, leaving space for financial innovation.

An Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between International Capital Flows and China’s Real Estate Prices

LI Zong-yi

2014, 0(08):  1716. 

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During the past fifteen years, many countries have experienced dramatic fluctuation cycles in real estate prices, accompanied by drastic fluctuations in international capital flows. Based on the regression analysis with the date from the first quarter of 1999 to the third quarter of 2013, this study obtains such results that the growth rate of the actual credit has an important impact on the growth rate of the actual housing prices, which gives an explanation to the 34% housing price increase, while the adding of the explanatory variable of the international capital flow index can only raise the adjustment R2 coefficient of the regression equation by 4 percent. In the sub-samples from the first quarter of 2003 to the third quarter of 2013, the growth rate of credit can only explain the 27% housing price increase; while the adding of the explanatory variable of the international capital flow index can raise the adjustment R2 coefficient of the regression equation by 10 percent. Therefore, it can be seen that the argument of the US National Bureau of Economic Research is one-sided, which believes that the rationality of taking the capital regulation policy as the counter cycle macro-prudential policy instrument can be questioned, at least it does not suitable for China. During the course of releasing the regulation on the capital accounts in China, the government should take the possibility into account that capital flow may lead to bursting of housing price bubbles and then triggering of financial crisis, especially it should treat the openness of other investment capital accounts cautiously. It is beyond doubt that the capital regulation policy has its rationality to be used as the macro-prudential policy instrument for China, such a great country with an emerging market economy.

Counter-Cyclical Characteristics of Technical Innovation in Chinese Enterprises：An Empirical Study Based on the Panel Data of Listed Firms

DING Zhong, DENG Ke-bin

2014, 0(08):  1717. 

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It is generally believed that there exists the counter-cyclicality in the economic cycle and the technical innovation cycle. Therefore, this paper conducts an empirical test to find out whether the international financial crisis from 2007 has this kind of counter-cyclical impact over the corporate innovation of China’s manufacturing industry. Based on the dummy variable testing model with the unbalanced panel data, this study finds out that after the financial crisis the innovation output of China’s manufacturing firms has been promoted obviously. Although the financial crisis has promoted the corporate innovation output, it does not generate any positive impact on the innovation will of the manufacturing firms in China; on the contrary, it has a certain negative effect. These results show that in the technical innovation environment of the transitional economy dominated by the government, the financial crisis can make the external environment pay more attention to support the innovation of the enterprises, but it fails to improve the spontaneous innovation will and intention effectively. Thus, the counter-cyclical characteristics of technical innovation in China are different from those of other developed countries.

A Study of Psychological Contract, Trust and Network Learning Effect among Enterprises in Industrial Clusters

CAI Wen-zhu, YANG Hui

2014, 0(08):  1718. 

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Faced with being “locked at the low-end” and other practical difficulties, many industrial clusters in China have the top priority of enhancing their network innovation ability so as to realize their sustainable development and upgrading, and strengthening network learning and the effect of learning is an effective way for these clusters to form the cluster network innovation ability. According to the theory of social psychology, behavior is a kind of outward manifestation of psychological perception. Thus it is not enough to study the effect of network learning only from such perspectives as the physical network structures of industrial clusters formed on the basis of the corporate economic transaction relationships in the clusters or the corporate interactive learning behaviors, it is also necessary to analyze deeply the psychological perception hiding behind the corporate learning behaviors in the clusters, i.e., the psychological contracts of the clustered enterprises. Therefore, taking the theoretical explanations and the factor analysis of the psychological contracts existing between the clustered enterprises as a starting point, this paper puts forward the concept model and research hypothesis of the psychological contracts of the clustered enterprises, the trust and the effect of network learning. Through data collection and empirical analysis of the conceptual models, this paper proposes some policy suggestions to improve the network learning effect of the industrial clusters from the perspective of psychological contracts of the clustered enterprises.

A Study of Self-Selection Effect and Export-Learning Effect of Chinese Enterprises: A Comparative Analysis Based on the Levels of Manufacturing and Service Enterprises

TU Yuan-fen

2014, 0(08):  1719. 

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By making use of the World Bank survey data on Chinese enterprises, this paper tries to investigate the functional mechanism between export and productivity of China’s enterprises in the service industry, and makes a comparative analysis of them with the enterprises in the manufacturing industry. The results indicate that the enterprises in the service industry with higher productivity will take the initiative to select export markets (self-selection effect), after entering the export market, they will further promote their business productivity (export-learning effect). However, no self-selection effect can be found on Chinese manufacturing enterprises, only export-learning effect is found. The conclusions of this paper can provide an empirical foundation for China’s further expansion of opening its service industry.

Has FDI Spillover Effect Promoted the Factor Reallocation of China’s Manufacturing Industry: An Empirical Analysis Based on Dynamic Panel Data

LAI Yong-jian

2014, 0(08):  1720. 

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By applying the systematic generalized moment method for dynamic panel data, this paper tries to test the impact of FDI spillover on the factor reallocations of China’s manufacturing industry from 2000 to 2009. The results show that the horizontal, forward and backward spillovers of FDI have a significant positive impact on the comprehensive factor reallocation effect in the manufacturing industry. After decomposing, it can be seen that all the three types of spillovers have significant positive influence on the factor reallocation effect of the enterprises in position. But only the backward spillovers have significant positive impact over the entering effects, and only the horizontal spillovers have significant positive impact on the exiting effect. Further study also finds out that the forward spillovers have significant positive influence only on the entering effect of enterprises in capital-intensive industries, and the backward spillovers have significant positive impact only on the exiting effect of labor-intensive enterprises.

A Review of Corporate Carbon Accounting Literatures

XU Ai-ling

2014, 0(08):  1721. 

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Carbon accounting at the enterprise level refers to the amount of economic activities related to carbon and the measurement of the incurred changes of value quantity. Its research contents include carbon emission, carbon sequestration accounting, carbon financial accounting and the extensions of carbon accounting. Judging from the related practice and existing research results both at home and abroad, the intension and the extension of “carbon accounting” are highly controversial. At present, there are various standards of measurement techniques and methods for carbon emissions and carbon sequestration accounting, which remain to be unified. The Life Cycle Assessment method has its limitations to be modified; the carbon financial accounting standards should be formulated urgently. Considering the current maturity of the market in China, the carbon emission right should be recognized as intangible assets, the measurement attributes should take history cost into account. Furthermore, the carbon management accounting and carbon auditing are the necessary extensions to the researches of carbon accounting.

Small and Medium-Sized Enterprise Board Listing, Financing Constraints Alleviation and Investment Efficiency

CUI Feng-hui1,2, CHEN Xue-sheng2

2014, 0(08):  1722. 

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Taking the listed companies on the SME Board as the research subject, this paper conducts an empirical test on the sensitivity of investment-cash flow before and after their listing on the board. The study finds out that before and after their listing, all the corporate investments have higher sensitivity on the internal cash flow, and the sensitivity after listing is significantly higher than that before listing. Through further study of the impact of cash holdings on the investment-cash flow sensitivity, it is found that the reason why the corporate investment after listing has higher sensitivity over the investment-cash flow is that after going public, the enterprises are faced with stronger financing constraints, rather than their overinvestment behaviors.