Table of Content

15 March 2014, Volume 0 Issue 03

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Demographic Dividend Changes and Transformation of China’s Economic Development Mode

GUO Han, REN Bao-ping

2014, 0(03):  1674. 

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From the theory of demographic transition, through the analysis of the stages of changes in population age structure, it is found that the changes in the demographic dividend would show a general rule of inverted U-shaped curve, and undergo three key turning points in turn. By using growth contribution decomposition method to measure the changes of China’s demographic dividend, the results show that China entered the demographic dividend interval in the mid-1980s, crossed the inflection point of demographic dividend in 2010, and will turn to demographic debt in 2030 after the continued decline of demographic dividend contribution rate. The changes in the demographic dividend would have an impact on economic growth through the four dimensions of capital formation, labor supply, human capital accumulation and labor force allocation efficiency. In the context of the demographic dividend on the decline, China’s economic development mode must be transformed in such areas as the base path, the labor factor, the resource elements, the policy adjustment and other fundamental objectives.

De-Industrialization, Economic Development and Selection of China’s Industrial Path

WANG Qiu-shi, WANG Yi-xin

2014, 0(03):  1675. 

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De-industrialization is an economic phenomenon that a country has to face when its economy develops to a certain extent. Different de-industrialization pattern would produce different effects on a country’s economy. A negative consequence resulted from the total de-industrialization is the industrial hollowing, which is a problem many developed countries are faced with in the process of economic development; while structural de-industrialization can better preserve the power sources of a country’s manufacturing sector and its economic growth. China is now about to enter the period of de-industrialization phase, its manufacturing industry is faced with rising costs, demographic dividend disappearing, rising exchange rate, competition from Southeast Asian countries and other unfavorable factors, while the re-industrialization behaviors of the developed countries also constitute a great challenge to China’s manufacturing industry. The structural de-industrialization is a pattern that China should adopt.

Governmental Competition, Factor Mobility and Industrial Transfer: An Empirical Study Based on Provincial Panel Data

ZHANG Liao1, SONG Shang-heng2

2014, 0(03):  1676. 

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By making use of the provincial panel data 1998-2012, this paper conducts an analysis of the impact of local government competition on the different regional factors and the scale of industry transfer. The study reveals that the inter-regional industrial transfer occurred since 1998 in China not only has certain geographical features, but also is significantly affected by the local government competition; the enterprises have very strong motivation in pursuit of the local governments’ policy support when they are reselecting locations. Under the conditions of not considering other influencing factors, when local tax burden rises by 1%, the scale of the regional industrial transfer will decrease by 0.014%; when the public goods supply of the local government rises by a unit, the scale of regional industry transfer will be led to increase by 0.01%; when the institutional environment optimization degree improves by 1%, the scale of regional industrial transfer will increase by 0.034%. The comparison can reveal that optimization of the institutional environment is of great significance among the many variables of government competition affecting the scale of local industry transfer. During the process of attracting actively high-end industries from surrounding areas, the local governments have to pay more attention to the local systems and other software environment constructions.

Should China’s Financial System under Provincial Level Head for Decentralization? Taking Fujian Province as an Example

LIN Yang-yan, LIU Ye, XI Peng-hui

2014, 0(03):  1677. 

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It is supposed that fiscal decentralization under provincial level can solve financial difficulties at grass roots caused by the asymmetry between local government’s financial power and administrative power. Since 2002, Fujian province has been carrying out the provincial fiscal decentralization reform, providing advanced experience for China’s financial system reform under provincial level. Through the analysis of the basic conditions of financial development at different levels in Fujian province after the reform, it can be concluded that under this mode the provincial fiscal decentralization is not sustainable; besides it is difficult to solve grass-roots financial difficulties and the problems of regional differences. Under current conditions, it is not mature yet for China’s financial system under provincial level to move towards fiscal decentralization. To improve the ability of macroeconomic regulation and control at the provincial level and to replace the decentralized mode with distributing revenue should be the direction for future reform.

An Empirical Analysis of Spatial Dependency of China’s Local Government Financial Policy: from the Perspective of Government Efficiency

GUAN Yan-qing1,2, LIU Jing-huan1, WANG Bao-shun1

2014, 0(03):  1678. 

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To study the interaction between local governments’ financial policies is of great significance to the top-level design of China’s financial and taxation system. Through theoretical analysis and by using the three-stage Bootstrap DEA and Spatial Durbin model, this paper measures and tests China’s local government efficiency at provincial level from 2007 to 2011. The results indicate that spatial dependent relationship of mutual promotion exists in such controlling variables as local government efficiency and its economic development level, the proportion of persons with higher education background, the degree of fiscal decentralization, and the degree of openness to the outside world, etc.. Therefore, several measures should be taken into account, such as to enhance the regional personnel exchanges and stimulation of local officials, improve market openness and education level of tax-payers, and perfect the financial and taxation systems that match the financial resources with expenditure responsibilities, these could help to improve government efficiency and give positive external play to its influencing factors.

City Attachment, Social Embeddedness and Financial Industrial Clusters: An Empirical Study Based on Panel Data of Chinese Cities

LI Da-lei1, ZHONG Wei-zhou2

2014, 0(03):  1679. 

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There are many cities in the world which have realized cluster development in their financial industry, thus their competitiveness has been effectively improved. In order to popularize this kind of development mode throughout China, this paper takes the core-periphery model and the social embeddedness theory as the basis for theoretical analysis and subsequently infers the factors influencing the cluster development of financial industry. Meanwhile, considering the spatial difference factors in different regions, it conducts an empirical study of the panel data from 35 large and medium cities in China. The results indicate that such factors as the proportion of financial industry output value in GDP, average wage of employees, regional GDP per capita, industry output level, commercial sale level, financial expenditure level, educational input level, location in the eastern region and so on in one city have positive effects on the cluster development of the financial industry in the city, while household savings level has negative effect. Therefore, the cities in the eastern, central and western regions should adopt different cluster development types for their financial industries. They should develop the multicomponent financial organization system and extend the scale and range of operation, so as to gain the faster and better growth speed. The governments should strengthen their policy guidance and support to the cluster development of urban financial industries, create favorable cultural environment, improve the business quality of the employees, and foster and attract excellent talents for the financial construction.

Effects of Human Capital on Real Exchange Rate: an Empirical Test Based on Transnational Panel Data

YU Wen-mei1,2, DU Ya-bin1, CAO Qiang2,3

2014, 0(03):  1680. 

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Based on the theoretical model established on the basis of human capital and real exchange rate, this paper uses the resent five years’ data across 135 countries all around the world to re-check the relationship between human capital and real exchange rate with the method of Driscoll and Kraay (1998) which has characteristics of spatial section correlation. The results indicate that there exists the U-shaped relationship between human capital and real exchange rate, i.e., at first the effect of human capital on real exchange rate is negative, and then it turns to positive when human capital exceeds the critical value. The endogenous Barca effect is negative, and the effects of age structure and government consumption on real exchange rate is ambiguous. Therefore, to study the effect of human capital on real exchange rate has to go deep into its inside structure and study the factor endowment effect and the endogenous Barca effect, which offers important implications for the study of real exchange rate.

Research on the Choices of Technological Innovation Directions for Chinese Enterprises

AN Tong-liang, PI Jian-cai

2014, 0(03):  1681. 

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Enterprises can choose either the technological innovation aimed at reducing the cost or the technological innovation aimed at improving the quality. It is found by this study that only when the degree of cost-reducing relative to that of quality-improving is large enough or moderate, will the pure strategy Nash equilibrium be found in choosing the techonogical innovation direction by enterprises, in that case one may choose the cost-reducing innovation while the other may adopt the quality-improving innovation. Secondly, only when the degree of cost-reducing relative to that of quality-improving falls into another moderate range, will the pure strategy Nash equilibrium be found in choosing the techonogical innovation direction by enterprises, in that case two of them choose the cost-reducing innovation at the same time. Thirdly, only when the degree of cost-reducing relative to that of quality-improving is small enough, will the pure strategy Nash equilibrium be found in choosing the techonogical innovation direction by enterprises, in that case two of them choose the quality-improving innovation at the same time. Finally, it puts forth some enlightening policy suggestions for upgrading“made in China”to“created in China”based on the model analysis.

A Study of Cost Allocation Mechanism of Multi-Temperature and Joint-Distribution Mode for Urban Cold Chain Logistics

LV Jun-jie, SUN Shuang-shuang, HE Ming-ke

2014, 0(03):  1682. 

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To carry out the multi-temperature and joint-distribution pattern of urban cold chain logistics is an effective way to reduce the cost in cold chain logistics, the urban pollution, and traffic jams, while setting up a set of fair and effective cost allocation mechanism is the key to the successful implementation of the pattern. Based on the cooperation alliance model, this paper uses for reference the related academic research results and establishes a cost allocation model of multi-temperature and joint-distribution pattern. Considering the characteristics of the pattern, it employs the improved Shapley Value theory as the allocating method for the cooperation cost. Finally, through analysis of examples it verifies the feasibility and availability of this method. The result can, to some extent, inspire the cooperation between the urban logistics providers and the traditional retailers and encourage them to carry out this new pattern.

Corporate Heterogeneous Composition and Decomposition of Industrial Clusters and Technological Upgrading Effects

ZHANG Cui

2014, 0(03):  1683. 

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Taking corporate heterogeneous composition and the differences of selection in the technological upgrading behaviors of the heterogeneous enterprises in the industrial cluster district as the precondition, this paper empirically investigates the problem of technological upgrading in the industrial cluster district on the business level. It is found by this study that the impact of industrial cluster on corporate technological upgrading can be decomposed into the level effect for all enterprises and the structural effect for the heterogeneous enterprises. The pure industrial enterprises cluster can help the backward enterprises to obtain the technological spillover from the advanced enterprises so as to catch up the technological development and upgrading, while little marginal contribution can be made to the technological innovation and upgrading of the advanced enterprises. The innovation and upgrading of the advanced enterprises need the support and motivation from the regional innovative system jointly formed by such public infrastructures as producer services, high-tech service industry, financial development and institutional environment, together with the industrial clusters. The study further reveals that there exists a positive feedback effect of increasing returns between the regional innovative system and the corporate technological upgrading within the system, which consititutes the endogenous source power for the self optimization and upgrading of the industrial clusters.

Administrative Molopoly, Market Allocation and Manufacturing Industry Geographical Cluster in the Central Region

NIU Min-yu, ZHONG Jian, ZHONG Wu-ya

2014, 0(03):  1684. 

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On the basis of the research framework of the new economic geograph, this paper conducts an empirical study of the effects of administrative monopoly and market allocation on the manufacturing industry geographical cluster in the central region. The results indicate that both administrative monopoly and market allocation have significant influence on the development of the manufacturing industry cluster in the central region, but the influence of the former is bigger than that of the latter. The administrative monopoly has multiple influences on the manufacturing industry cluster in the central region, while the traditional administrative monopoly measures represented by taxation go against the promotion of industry cluster. In addition, for the changes of gepgraphical clusters of different types of manufacturing industry, the market allocation factors playing their roles are also different. As for the gepgraphical clusters of high level clustering industries, the effect of the money external factor among the market allocation factors is most significant. As for the clustering industries of middle level, the effect of the scale external factor is most significant. The effects of knowledge externality on gepgraphical cluster of manufacturing industry in the central region are not significant.

International Comparisons and Convergence Improvements of Agricultural Accounting Policy: from the Policy-Making Perspective

WANG Le-jin, QI Hao-dong

2014, 0(03):  1685. 

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The particularities of biological assets lead to the complexities of agricultural accounting information processing and disclosure. From the perspective of international comparisons between different accounting policy-making procedures, it can be seen that there exist many differences in such aspects of agricultural accounting policies as standard scope, classification of biological assets, recognition criteria of biological assets, measurement attributes of biological assets and farm products, as well as off-balance-sheet information disclosure. Although accounting internationalization is the general trend, the following convergence still has to be improved, mainly including standardizing the classification method of biological assets, identifying the measurement attribute according to the category of biological assets, detailing the depreciation methods of long-term productive biological assets, and clarifying disclosure requirements for the risk information concerning biological assets and farm products.

A Non-Monotony Analysis of Financing Constraints and Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivity: Evidence of Precautionary Motive from China’s Real Estate Industry

YU Bo

2014, 0(03):  1686. 

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Investment-cash flow sensitivity is often used to represent the level of corporate financing constraints. However, by comparing the operating characteristics between financing constraints and investment-cash flow sensitivity in the real estate industry from 2000 to 2011, it can be found that after 2007 both of them present a totally opposite breaking structure. This kind of deviation inosculates with the discourse of non-monotony relationship between the two in the KZ criticism. The theoritical analysis indicates that the non-monotony can be attributed to the changes of corporate precautionary motives, i.e., there exists the conductive logic of “financing constraint↑→precautionary motive↑→investment-cash flow sensitivity↓”. While the liquidity smoothing model based on the precautionary motive can further verify the existence of the above-mentioned path, thus it can provide evidence of precautionary motive for KZ criticism