Abstract: In recent years, the increased scale of local government debt has become a focus issue in the development of China’s economy growth and the operation of the local finance system. This paper introduces the local fiscal capacity into the analytical model for the first time, and integrates fiscal capacity, financial deficits, soft budget constraints and economic development modes into the comprehensive research frame. Considering the double investment-inducing effect of debts and the differences between regions, it adopts the spatial econometric model to calculate the relationship between the above-mentioned factors and the accumulated local government debt scale from the total and regional aspects. The results show that fiscal capacity has a major impact on local debt scale, especially in the eastern region; while in the central and western regions, the influence of the financial deficits on the increased debt scale cannot be ignored. Therefore, according to the real conditions of each region, the following measures should be taken, such as adjusting tactically the financial distribution relation to curb the appetite for the local government debt, establishing reliable debt repayment mechanism to reduce risks, and improving the local debt system and legal restraints to promote the sustainable development of local debt.

Key words: regional fiscal capacity; local government debts scale; competition for investment; soft budget constraint