关税冲击、金融摩擦与中国经济增长

当代财经 ›› 2026, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (4): 33-45.

• 理论经济·经济增长专题 • 上一篇下一篇

关税冲击、金融摩擦与中国经济增长

程博文¹, 龚六堂^2,3

1.北京工商大学经济学院,北京 102488;
2.武汉大学高级研究中心,湖北武汉 430072;
3.北京大学数量经济与数理金融教育部重点实验室,北京 100871

收稿日期:2025-12-13 修回日期:2026-01-19 发布日期:2026-04-24
作者简介:程博文（通信作者）,北京工商大学博士后,经济学博士,主要从事财政政策和收入分配问题研究,联系方式chengbowen7693@126.com;龚六堂,武汉大学和北京大学教授,经济学博士,博士生导师,主要从事宏观经济学、动态经济学、公共财政以及中国经济相关问题研究。
基金资助:
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大专项项目“中国宏观经济学的自主知识体系构建研究”（2023JZDZ025）

Tariff Shocks, Financial Frictions, and Economic Growth in China

Cheng Bo-wen¹, Gong Liu-tang^2,3

1. Beijing Technology and Business University, Beijing 102488;
2. Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072;
3. Peking University, Beijing 100871, China

Received:2025-12-13 Revised:2026-01-19 Published:2026-04-24

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在逆全球化浪潮蔓延、贸易保护主义持续升温的背景下,科学评估关税冲击的宏观经济传导机制并探寻有效应对路径,具有重要的理论价值与政策参考意义。利用一个嵌入金融摩擦与异质性企业的开放经济动态随机一般均衡模型,结合中国工业企业数据对参数进行结构估计,能系统量化分析关税冲击对我国经济增长的影响效应及其内在传导逻辑。研究结果表明,关税冲击对经济的影响程度取决于其持续性特征,永久性关税冲击产生的负面效应显著大于暂时性冲击。从经济结构来看,相对于国内产出,关税冲击对出口的影响更大。机制分析进一步揭示,若不考虑企业面临的金融摩擦,将显著低估中国经济增长受到的负面影响。金融摩擦会通过“利润下降—净值收缩—融资受限—投资萎缩”的金融加速器效应显著放大关税冲击的负面效应。政策模拟结果显示,降低贸易成本、推动技术进步以及深化区域经贸合作均可有效对冲关税冲击。

关键词: 关税冲击, 金融摩擦, 经济增长, 异质性企业

Abstract: Against the backdrop of the spreading de-globalization and the rising trade protectionism, scientifically assessing the macroeconomic transmission mechanisms of tariff shocks and exploring effective response paths have significant theoretical value and policy relevance. By constructing an open-economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model embedded with financial frictions and firm heterogeneity, and utilizing structural estimation based on Chinese industrial enterprise data, this study systematically quantifies the impact of tariff shocks on China’s economic growth and its underlying transmission logic. The findings indicate that the magnitude of the impact depends on the persistence of the shock; specifically, the negative effects of permanent tariff shocks are significantly greater than those of temporary ones. Structurally, tariff shocks exert a more pronounced negative influence on exports than on domestic output. The mechanism analysis further reveals that ignoring financial frictions will lead to a significant underestimation of the negative impact on China’s economic growth. Financial frictions will amplify the adverse effects of tariff shocks through a“financial accelerator”mechanism: declining profits, shrinking net worth, tightened financing constraints, contracting investment. Policy simulations suggest that reducing trade costs, promoting technological progress, and deepening regional economic cooperation can effectively counteract tariff shocks.

Key words: tariff shocks, financial frictions, economic growth, heterogeneous firms

中图分类号:

F745.0

程博文, 龚六堂. 关税冲击、金融摩擦与中国经济增长[J]. 当代财经, 2026, 0(4): 33-45.

Cheng Bo-wen, Gong Liu-tang. Tariff Shocks, Financial Frictions, and Economic Growth in China[J]. Contemporary Finance & Economics, 2026, 0(4): 33-45.

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关税冲击、金融摩擦与中国经济增长

Tariff Shocks, Financial Frictions, and Economic Growth in China

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