关键词: 房价预期, 内生不确定性, 总需求不足, 非对称效应

Abstract: The downward trend of economic expectations is an important reason for the lack of aggregate demand in China. Based on China's macroeconomic quarterly data from the year 2009 to 2022, this paper analyzes the impact of the expectations of housing price shocks on the aggregate demand and its transmission mechanism by constructing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that includes the irrational expectations shocks of housing prices and the endogenous uncertainty. The results indicate that: firstly, a downward expectation shock of housing prices will lead to a decline in aggregate demand, the transmission mechanism including the illusion of housing wealth, the financial accelerator, and uncertainty. Secondly, the uncertainty mechanism amplifies the suppressive effect of the negative housing price shock on the aggregate demand, resulting in a more significant decline in total demand. Thirdly, there is an asymmetric effect between the negative and positive expectation shocks of housing prices on aggregate demand, with the impact of price decline expectations being more substantial. Fourthly, in the face of a negative expectation shock, the macroprudential policy tools that focus on the observed housing price expectations are more effective in smoothing aggregate demand fluctuations. Therefore, government departments should strengthen the expectation management, implement policies tailored to individual cities, and adopt more policy tools to boost the real estate demand and reduce uncertainty.

Key words: house price expectation, endogenous uncertainty, insufficient aggregate demand, asymmetric effect