关键词: 人口结构,人口红利,人口负债,经济发展方式

Abstract: From the theory of demographic transition, through the analysis of the stages of changes in population age structure, it is found that the changes in the demographic dividend would show a general rule of inverted U-shaped curve, and undergo three key turning points in turn. By using growth contribution decomposition method to measure the changes of China’s demographic dividend, the results show that China entered the demographic dividend interval in the mid-1980s, crossed the inflection point of demographic dividend in 2010, and will turn to demographic debt in 2030 after the continued decline of demographic dividend contribution rate. The changes in the demographic dividend would have an impact on economic growth through the four dimensions of capital formation, labor supply, human capital accumulation and labor force allocation efficiency. In the context of the demographic dividend on the decline, China’s economic development mode must be transformed in such areas as the base path, the labor factor, the resource elements, the policy adjustment and other fundamental objectives.

Key words: demographic structure; demographic dividend; demographic debt; economic growth mode