关键词: LEAP,上海,能源消耗,碳排放

Abstract: LEAP platform is an ideal tool to analyze the complex system of economy and energy environment. By constructing a LEAP-Shanghai model, this study designs three comprehensive scenarios, i.e. the baseline scenario, the emission reduction scenario, and the enhanced emission reduction scenario, as well as other eight sub-scenarios, including industrial structure optimization, terminal energy efficiency improvement, and so on. Then it simulates the energy consumption and carbon emissions trends in Shanghai and conducts an analysis of the contribution of each scenario. The results show that, according to the long-term stable economic growth, the growth trend of energy consumption and carbon emission in Shanghai can hardly be reversed in a middle or short term, but there may be a peak around 2040, earlier in the whole country. The key of long-term energy-saving and carbon emission reduction is to exercise a reasonable control over the growth rate of economic development. To achieve this target, various other means should also be relied on.

Key words: LEAP; Shanghai; energy consumption; carbon emissions