关键词: 地方政府债券, 债务置换, 商业银行, 理财收益率

Abstract: From the interconnected fiscal and financial prospective, this paper examines the impact of local government bonds on the yield rates of commercial banks' wealth management products in different periods with the data of yield rates of banks' wealth management products from 2011 to 2018. The finds show that before or after debt replacement, local government bonds decrease or increase the yield rate of commercial banks' wealth management products respectively. By introducing the dummy variables of local governments' debt replacement, the findings reveal that the different effect of local government bonds is the result of debt replacement. Before debt replacement, local government bonds served as a legal channel of financing, the expansion of its issuing scale weakened the dependence of local governments on the commercial banks' wealth management financing and therefor lowered the yield rate of commercial banks' wealth management products. The debt replacement has aggravated the liquidity constraints of the commercial banks by extending the maturity of local governments' debts that held by the commercial banks, forcing the commercial banks to attract deposits in a covert way by raising the yield rates of wealth management products. Therefore, the regulatory authorities should limit the scale of local governments' implicit debt, optimize the debt structure, pay close attention to the liquidity of commercial banks during the debt replacement period, and broaden the group of government bond subscription.

Key words: local government bond, debt replacement, commercial bank, yield rate of wealth management products