当代财经英文精萃版

JOURNAL OF CONTEMPORARY FINANCE AND ECONOMICS ›› 2017, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (1): 107-119.

Previous Articles     Next Articles

An Analysis of the Dynamic Effect of China's E-commerce Development on Export: Evidences from the Countries Involved in the Belt and Road Initiative

XU Tongsheng1, YANG Ying1, CHEN Ya2   

  1. 1. Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China;
    2. Australian National University, Canberra 2602, Australia
  • Online:2017-01-15 Published:2021-09-24
  • About author:Xu Tongsheng, Professor with Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Doctoral Supervisor, mainly engaged in researches on international trade theory and Policy, email: xu3816331@126.com. Yang Ying, Master candidate with Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, mainly engaged in researches on international trade theory and policy. Chen Ya, Master candidate with Australian National University, mainly engaged in researches on Finance and international trade.

PDF

Abstract: E-commerce is one of the important contents of “Internet+”. With the entropy method, this paper measures the development level of China's E-commerce and analyzes the mechanism of its impact on export trade. Based on the data of China's exports to 60 countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative from 1999 to 2014 and adopting the panel vector auto-regression model, it tries to validate the dynamic effect of E-commerce development on export. The results show that China's E-commerce development is presenting a continuously rising momentum, which has a positive impact on the one phase lag export and its binary margins, the impact on the intensive margin is greater than that on the expansion margin. In the second phase, it has a negative impact on the binary margins, but in other times, it has only positive impacts. Its contribution to the changes of export value is the biggest, followed by the changes of the intensive margin, and its contribution to the changes of expansion margin is the least. Therefore, to strive to develop E-commerce and effectively control its risks is an important measure to promote exports and its binary margins.

Key words: E-commerce, dynamic effects of exports, Belt and Road Initiative, PVR model