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15 January 2019, Volume 0 Issue 1 Previous Issue    Next Issue

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Short-Term and Inflection Point Forecasting of CPI by Using Internet Searching Big Data: An Empirical Study Based on MIDAS Model LIU Kuanbin, ZHANG Tao 2019, 0(1): 3-16.  Abstract ( )   PDF (329KB) ( )   The CPI index plays an important role in monitoring and managing the operation of a country's macro economy, and the timely and effective prediction of its future trend is conducive for the country to take reasonable regulatory measures in time. Therefore, starting from the price determination theory, this paper constructs a logical framework for the relationship between commodity price volatility and individual web search behavior, then it establishes a mixed-frequency data sampling model (MIDAS) for monthly CPI prediction by using the daily frequency data of network search index. The findings show that: (1) the prediction method using web searching high frequency data can improve the accuracy of both the inside matching and outside prediction of CPI samples; (2) the high frequency data using web search can improve the success rate of capturing the“inflection point”in the CPI trend; (3) the high frequency data using web searching can provide the value of CPI forecasting with higher prediction accuracy approximately half a month before the official release of CPI data. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Can Information Communication Capability Improve Responses of Local Financial Authorities to People's Livelihood: From the Perspective of Modern ICTs such as the Internet LIU Chengkui, XU Xiao 2019, 0(1): 17-30.  Abstract ( )   PDF (283KB) ( )   Information asymmetry will lead to the lack of supervision from the central government, the society and the residents over the public decision-making by local governments. Therefore, reducing the cost of information can constrain the discretionary power of local governments, which can restrain the investment impulse of local governments and enhance the responses of local financial authorities to the people's livelihood. Modern ICTs such as the Internet can realize this impact mechanism. Further research shows that improving information communication capabilities can enhance the responses of local financial authorities to the people's livelihoods, thus improving the development of public services for the local people's livelihood. Therefore, in order to carry out the financial construction for people's livelihood, we should not only carry out the financial system reform which can have permanent cure effect, but also pay attention to the external technical which may restrain the treatment of the symptoms. We should vigorously develop the network communications, give full play to the modern ICT technology in promoting the financial constructions for people's livelihood and the development of local public services for people's livelihood, strengthen the special education of modern ICT technology, and urge the residents to use modern ICT technology rationally to reflect the appeals of people's livelihood. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Theory and Practice of Green Finance Expenditure--Reflection on the Deepening Green Development Proposed by the 19th National Congress of CPC WEI Jihua, JIANG Jinfa 2019, 0(1): 31-44.  Abstract ( )   PDF (268KB) ( )   The 19th National Congress of CPC demands to promote green development and speed up the construction of ecological civilization. Xi Jinping's thought of ecological civilization is the thought to follow and the action guideline for China to promote the green development and the construction of ecological civilization. Finance is the foundation and important pillar of national governance, and the green finance expenditure is an important means of guiding, supporting and economic guarantee for realization of socialist ecological civilization. The green finance originates from the traditional finance, it is the sublimation of the public financial system in theory, and it conforms to the intrinsic requirements of modern financial system. Green finance has innovated the traditional finance expenditure principle from such aspects as development thought, development strategy and expenditure mechanism and is based on the theories of Marx's ecological view, ecological capital theory, environmental value theory and externality theory. In order to construct green finance expenditure system which is based on the construction of ecological civilization, it is necessary to make a rational division between the green finance responsibility and the expenditure responsibility, to innovate green finance expenditure modes, and to reform the green finance expenditure management system. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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On the Adverse Selection of P2P Online Lending Market and Its Governance ZHOU Geng, FAN Conglai, WANG Yuwei 2019, 0(1): 45-56.  Abstract ( )   PDF (224KB) ( )   Information asymmetry has a negative effect on financing efficiency; financing interest rate can ease the impact of information asymmetry on financing efficiency, while financing term can enhance the impact of information asymmetry on financing efficiency. The credit-keeping borrowers should disclose all information as much as possible. When the information disclosure is frustrated, it can be made up by raising interest rates and shortening the time limits. The investors should resist the temptation of high interest rates and choose the financing projects with well-disclosed information. The P2P intermediary platforms should establish smooth channels for information disclosure and improve the degree of intelligence for automated bidding. The regulators should establish a mandatory information disclosure system and strive to reduce the level of equilibrium interest rates in the markets. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Political-Financial Cycles and Monetary Policies Effects of Great Powers MIAO Wenlong 2019, 0(1): 57-68.  Abstract ( )   PDF (258KB) ( )   To grasp the financial periodic law is very important in the steady financial development, and government succession is a factor affecting the operation of the financial markets, which is not to be neglected. Based on the observations of international empirical facts, this article adopts the panel data regression analysis and the cross-spectrum analysis to conduct an empirical study. The findings indicate that there exists a significant“political-financial cycle”in the market economy countries of different types, and that political cycle is an important factor affecting the financial cycles of the country. The financial cycles of one country is also significantly affected by the monetary policies of the core countries, but the effect is smaller than the political cycle of the country. There exists a certain numerical relationship among the financial cycles of every country, but the levels of intimacy are different, no universally-changed periodicity law is found. Therefore, in order to smooth the cross-border capital flow and maintain the stable development of the country's economy, it is necessary to measure and grasp the periodic law of international finance, to implement active monetary policies, and to carry out moderate structural capital control under the premise of keeping the independence of monetary policies. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Impact of the Internet on the Development of Productive Service Industries: From the Perspective of Transaction Cost LU Fucai, XU Yuanbin 2019, 0(1): 69-78.  Abstract ( )   PDF (205KB) ( )   Compared with the industrial development level in China at present, the development level of the producer services in China cannot meet the need of economic development. From the perspective of transaction costs, this paper constructs a theoretical model which includes the Internet, the transaction costs and the producer services. Then, it makes use of the provincial panel date from 2008 to 2014 to test the relationship among the Internet, the transaction costs and the producer services. The results show that the Internet has significant positive effect on the development of the producer services, and that the increasing development of the Internet will promote the continuous expansion of the producer services. The promotion effect of the Internet on the development of the producer services turns out to be an intermediary effect of transaction costs, through reducing the transaction costs the Internet can promote the development of the producer services. In order to give the Internet a full play in promoting the development of the producer services, it is necessary to further strengthen the investment and construction of the network infrastructure, further improve the Internet availability rate, and further speed up the industry transformation and upgrading. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Interactive Path between the Development Quality of China's Manufacturing Industry and the International Competitiveness HE Zhengchu, CAO De, WU Yan 2019, 0(1): 79-92.  Abstract ( )   PDF (275KB) ( )   This paper makes an analysis of the development quality of the manufacturing industry and the connotation of the international competitiveness from the perspective of domestic supply and international demand according to the modern economic system theory and the industrial international competition theory. Based on the evolutionary economics theory, it explores the interactive structure and the path of the manufacturing industries development quality and the international competitiveness from the perspective of industry and products, so as to construct an interactive evaluation index system. Then it employs a canonical correlation analysis model to explore the impact factor and impact degree between the manufacturing industry development quality system and the international competitiveness system, as well as the interaction inside of the systems. The empirical evidences show that, firstly, the development benefit, the medium and high-end industrial structure, the market allocation and the innovation potential (patent) of the manufacturing industry development quality have formed an effective interaction with the trade competitive index, the comparative advantage, the international market share and the scale economy of the international competitiveness, but the development speed, the innovative commercialization and the innovation potential (the intensity of science and technology funds input) of the manufacturing industry development quality would exert a weaker negative effect on the interaction of the above systems; secondly, the service guarantee can play a certain inhibiting role in the development of the manufacturing industry development quality system and the international competitiveness system, while the efficiency promotion effect of the production service industry is not given its play. Therefore, in order to promote the interaction between China's manufacturing industry development quality and the international competitiveness, it is necessary, starting from the domestic supply side, to pay attention to the balanced development of the internal economic development quality system, efficiency system and power system of the manufacturing industry development quality, as well as to optimize the supply structure of the production service industry. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Changing Path and Trend of Brand Slogans of Chinese Enterprises: From the Perspective of Multi-Case Study ZHANG Pan, NIU Yongge 2019, 0(1): 93-103.  Abstract ( )   PDF (226KB) ( )   Changing the brand slogans of enterprises is an important management strategy to keep brand vitality. This paper focuses on two Chinese famous brands, Yili and Haier to explore the changing path and trend of brand slogans in Chinese enterprises by employing the combined double-case study and content analysis method. Then it is verified with the changing path of brand slogans of Li Ning Company. The results reveal that Chinese brand slogans have shown an obvious changing tendency in the changing path with some characteristics, gradually changing into the slogans of such types as consumer-oriented perspective, emotional appeal, lower power distance, stronger rigidity style, strong implication and non-associative slogans. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Auditing System and Audit Efficiency: Evidences from Local Auditing Agencies MA Yiqun, WU Qiusheng 2019, 0(1): 104-117.  Abstract ( )   PDF (241KB) ( )   Auditing system has an important impact on audit efficiency. According to the theory of immune system, audit efficiency can be divided into revealing efficiency, defending efficiency and preventing efficiency. This paper employs the DEA-Malmquist method to examine the impact of the auditing system during the period of 2002-2013 on the audit efficiency. The findings show that firstly all the three kinds of efficiencies in the audit efficiency are not well performed, and the regional differences are significant; secondly, the auditing system has a significant impact on audit efficiency. Then, on the basis of exploring the reasons for the changes of audit efficiency and from the perspective of improving audit efficiency, it makes an analysis of the development direction of the auditing system, so as to provide reference for the formulation and revision of the auditing system in the future. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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IPO Time Consumption, Choice of Earnings Management Methods and Economic Consequences ZHANG Yan 2019, 0(1): 118-130.  Abstract ( )   PDF (237KB) ( )   Taking the IPO companies of China's A-share markets from April 2000 to 2012 as a sample, this paper conducts an empirical test of the impact of the company's IPO time-consumption on the choice of the two different earnings management methods. The results show that after the IPO procedure is started, the degree of the accrual-based earnings management manipulated by the company will gradually decline over time, and the degree of manipulating the real activity-based earnings management will gradually increase. Further research finds that companies with longer-time IPOs have a relatively higher initial under-pricing rate, and their operation performance will be relatively poorer after listing. The conclusions of this paper can provide some reference for optimizing and adjusting the IPO issuing system. References | Related Articles | Metrics